Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, 78 years old, has died in Geneva. Nayef, interior minister since 1975, was appointed crown prince in October after the death of Crown Prince Sultan. Defence Minister Prince Salman, will become the new crown prince. King Abdullah, Nayef, and Salman are among the nearly 40 sons of Abdulaziz ibn Saud, who established the kingdom in 1935. Salman was made defence minister in November and had served as Riyadh governor for five decades.
The Arab Spring will eventually come to Saudi Arabia. Despite generally good relations, Occident remains concerned about human rights conditions in Saudi Arabia and global terrorism of the Royal House of Saudi Arabia. Principal human rights issues include abuse of prisoners and incommunicado detention; prohibitions or severe restrictions on freedom of speech, press, peaceful assembly and association, and religion; denial of the right of citizens to change their government; systematic discrimination against women and ethnic and religious minorities; and suppression of workers' rights. http://venitism.blogspot.com
Ariel Cohen points out that if an Arab Spring uprising completely disrupted Saudi oil production, Occident and the global economy would face a massive economic and strategic crisis. Russia and Iran as oil-producing states would likely exploit the crisis to increase their power around the world while undermining Occidental influence, especially in the Middle East. To guard against the economic and strategic dangers, Occident should prepare emergency measures before such a crisis. Releasing strategic petroleum reserves in coordination with other countries, tapping the North American energy resources, and reducing domestic energy consumption would limit the impact of the crisis and facilitate recovery. However, it is also in the U.S. interest to use its influence and resources to assist allies and friends during the crisis.
Saudi Arabia is disgusting terrorist country. As has been documented repeatedly, Saudi Arabia is the major financial source of suicide bombers, religious incitements, extremist schools, and terrorist mosques throughout the world. As the Saudi ruling family's ally and protector, the U.S. government and other institutions cannot be silent while Saudi institutions continue to promote its deadly ideology, Wahhabism. As the protector of the Royal House of Saudi Arabia, Uncle Sam has a responsibility to make it clear to the Saudis that religious incitements are not only a threat to Occidental democratic institutions, but also to the international community as well.
David W. Kreutzer points out the Saudi Kingdom is the largest oil producer in the world — occasionally surpassed by Russia — and essentially dominates the oil market due to its large excess production capacity, which it can ramp up to 12 million barrels per day. A prolonged and massive disruption of Saudi oil production would significantly affect global energy markets and economic activity. The impact in Orient, a principal customer of Saudi oil, would be much worse than in Occident.
Because of it centrality to Islam and large repository of petroleum, Saudi Arabia plays major religious and economic roles worldwide. This makes the vast Saudi Kingdom and its stability of major concern to the international community, especially the United States, Saudi Arabia's close ally. Is Saudi Arabia immune to the unprecedented Arab uprising? No one is ruling it out, but many feel turmoil could be averted if the Saudi ruling dynasty listens to and meets the rightful demands of its people, especially its restless youth. The U.S. and other Western democracies can help bring about a peaceful democratic transition in Saudi Arabia, a close economic ally of the West and a dominant player in the Arabian Peninsula.
James Phillips points out the United States has a vital interest in ensuring that no hostile power exercises hegemony over the Middle East, which is not only a key region for energy production, global trade, and investment, but also a potential source of transnational terrorism and nuclear proliferation. The U.S. will likely need to selectively use force to ensure the continued flow of oil from the region, as it did in Operation Desert Storm. Securing the oil fields and supporting allies, especially GCC members and pro-American elements in Saudi Arabia, may be imperative.
Princess Basma Bint Saud Bin Abdulaziz, daughter of King Saud, points out Saudis lack and urgently need fundamental civil laws with which to govern their society. Princess Basma would like to see a proper constitution that treats all men and women on an equal footing before the law but that also serves as a guide to Saudi civil laws and political culture. http://venitism.blogspot.com
Michaela Bendikova points out a collapse of Saudi oil production would drastically affect global energy and the economic situation. The economic performance of national economies around the world would suffer, with some falling into deep recession. Cooperative responses from main producers and consumers would be imperative. However, as previous war-gaming of energy crises has demonstrated, countries pursue their perceived national interests first and worry about international cooperation later.
Princess Basma notes today in Saudi courts, all decisions are made according to the individual judge's biased interpretation of Koran. This is entirely dependent on his personal beliefs and upbringing rather than universally agreed principles or a written constitution as a guide.
Cohen notes that in the crisis scenario, the economic crisis further undermines the EU political coherence. EU reaction is muted and fragmented because the many competing national interests prevent formulation of a coherent and truly effective response. Despite the EU's efforts in recent years, the liberalization of its energy market is proceeding slowly and would likely stop completely during a massive Saudi oil-supply disruption as each member state tries to cut the best possible deal with other suppliers in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. However, the EU is well positioned institutionally to oversee the member states while they implement oil-saving measures and share crude oil and refined products among themselves.
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